According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 is up about 20% since President Trump’s so-called Liberation Day, indicating strong U.S. equity momentum that traders track as a macro risk-on cue, source: @KobeissiLetter. IMF research has documented a tighter post-2020 correlation between U.S. equities and Bitcoin, meaning stock rallies have increasingly moved in sync with crypto prices, source: International Monetary Fund 2022 article Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks. Given this correlation, monitoring S&P 500 strength is relevant when assessing BTC and ETH risk exposure and potential cross-asset flows, source: International Monetary Fund 2022 article Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) has climbed 8.8% during regular trading hours from April 2 to May 21, following President Trump’s 'Liberation Day,' while overnight sessions saw a 3.4% decline (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 2, 2025). This divergence suggests U.S. market strength is largely driven by domestic activity, with international investors less engaged during off-hours. For crypto traders, this pattern highlights U.S. equity optimism potentially spilling over into crypto during U.S. hours, while risk-off sentiment persists overnight. Monitoring SPY’s intraday versus overnight trends can help anticipate crypto market liquidity and volatility shifts, especially during U.S. trading sessions.